15 Churn Alerts Every CS Leader Needs
You don’t need more dashboards.
You need a few alerts that protect million-dollar renewals and spot six-figure expansion before your competitors do.
One click can lie, but patterns tell the truth, and this system helped one team catch $2.3M in at-risk ARR 60 days earlier than traditional health scores.
Master this alert system and you’ll earn board-level trust → the signal hiring teams look for in senior CS roles.
The Core Idea: Patterns Beat Clicks
A single login dip might be noise, but a 50% drop in core features paired with pricing-page visits and seat removals signals churn.
Based on the same logic, when a user attends a feature webinar, tests the feature within a week, and returns twice in two weeks, that’s expansion intent.
If you’re mapping alerts to the customer journey, tie them to your lifecycle stages using my Customer Success Systems & Outcomes Framework.
The Two Buckets You Must Cover
Inside the product: usage caps, feature depth, admin changes, and seat movement.
Outside the product: hiring, layoffs, new leaders, job posts, pricing-page dwell, public press.
→ Blend both: that’s where signal lives.
For a fast primer on early risk detection, see my guide on how to Prevent $1M Churn
The S.C.O.P.E. Rule (Every Alert Needs This)
Signal: what happened in plain words.
Context: plan, ARR, renewal date, health.
Owner: one person, not a channel.
Play: exact next step, with a due date.
Evidence: links to usage, notes, and contract.
When you turn alerts into revenue stories, report them the same way you brief leadership. Use my Net Revenue Retention (NRR) Guide.
7 High-Signal Alerts To Ship First
Expansion
Near the limit: >80% of seats/reports for 14 days.
Feature combo: webinar → tries feature in 7 days → returns twice in 14 days.
Pricing-page dwell: the same admin spends >2 minutes on pricing, twice in 10 days.
New team interest: a manager from a new team signs up with the company email.
Churn
Seats down: −10% in a week or −20% in a month.
Champion leaves: job change or bounce.
Sharp drop: 50% fall in a keystone feature vs. the last 30 days.
If silent risk is your headache, fix onboarding first with Stop Silent Churn: The Onboarding Fix.
A Simple 7-Day Start Plan
Day 1–2: pick 5 alerts (3 expand, 2 churn). Write S.C.O.P.E. for each.
Day 3–4: wire basic data (events + account).
Day 5: send alerts to people, not channels.
Day 6: attach a one-page play for each alert.
Day 7: pilot with 2 CSMs. Cut noise. Cap at ≤10 alerts/CSM/week.
To plug these alerts into renewal talks, use the talk tracks in the SaaS Price Increase Playbook.
Two Plays To Run This Week
Continuity before renewal
If an admin changes within 60 days of renewal, book a 30-minute "nothing breaks" call, confirm reports/handoffs, and present annual prepay.
For high-stakes renewal conversations, pair these plays with the Ultimate Guide to Executive Business Reviews
Feature delivered → win-back
When a requested feature ships, book 15 minutes, show the fix, and offer a pilot upgrade; keep the rollout clean with Feature Announcement Strategy
Need a ready framework? Grab the Customer Success Playbook Template.
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