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Health Score That Actually Predicts Renewals

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The Customer Success Café
Oct 09, 2025
∙ Paid
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Problem

Your “health score” tracks activity, not value moments. It can’t predict renewals, so you chase noise and miss real risk.

Minimum Inputs

  • Last 3–4 quarters of renewals (win/loss) with ARR

  • Segment (SMB/MM/ENT), product plan, contract dates

  • Candidate value metrics (3–7): activated use-cases, key feature adoption, workflow completions, automations run, exec logins tied to outcomes

  • Owner: CS Ops (build), CS Lead (rollout), CSMs (actions)
    Tip: if you’re still defining core product events, start with this 7-day CS foundation to log the signals that feed a real score.


The 5-Step Play (1–2 public)

1. Shortlist value signals (not vanity).

Keep metrics tied to outcomes or $$ impact:

  • “workflows automated/week,”

  • “data syncs to CRM,”

  • “% seats hitting outcome benchmark.”

Kill logins/pageviews/generic NPS.

2. Backtest every signal.

Split accounts into top/bottom quartiles over a 90-day window.

Compare renewal rates and ACV retained.

Keep signals with clear lift (e.g., +12–20 pts renewal in top quartile).

Need baseline math while you build? Use the NRR Guide and the NRR Calculator to sanity-check retention/expansion effects.

Related: Run this alongside your 30-Day At-Risk Rhythm so red/yellow accounts trigger action fast. 30-Day “At-Risk” Operating Rhythm (publishing next).


Want steps 3–5 plus the scoring formula, normalization, and a plug-and-play backtest calculator (GSheet)? Templates below.

Trusted by 4,300+ CS pros. Get my templates, scripts, and calculators for every play. Upgrade · Expense it · Team plans

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